The Mobile Web existed without the iphone …and still does

This is an extended article, to an original shorter response I made to Roberts post here.

The iphone is without question, a game changer for mobile internet. It has woken up not only VCs to the mobile internet, but given the often arrogant and lacklustre stakeholders of the entrenched mobile industry a serious kick up the arse. I think the iphone is great; but you cannot get away from the fact it will remain a tiny percentage of the mobile market for many years to come.

Should VCs invest in iphone-only startups?

What I took away from the Mobile Web Wars last Friday, before the August Capital party, was that VCs might not invest in an iphone-ONLY startup. Im not surprised. They estimate 10 million units by early next year? Thats very small numbers if you’re going to ONLY serve those customers. It’s less than 10% of Facebooks user base. Infact, name one company which has sold for big bucks which has only 10 million users? That would mean a startup would have to reach 100% user takeup for their app to be highly valuable.

I have been frustrated, as many before me, that VCs have the particulars they do about investing in certain types of businesses and have the expectations they do for success – which in turn demand a big market and big ideas which can make big money; but I understand, because that is the game they are in. If you have to make your money back on your fund from only 5% of your portfolio, you have to make sure that probably 100% of your portfolio has atleast the probable chance of making it big – i.e. a 20, 50 or 100 times return.

We [my company, Rummble] are developing an iphone app for Rummble. Why? because we know we can deliver a compelling user experience, that it will work when users install it and that iphone users are typically early adopters or gadget lovers who embrace new technology. They are IT literate and are heavy web users. With an iphone, they take that mobile.

However, we’re also launching a Java app, to serve a vast block of the mobile user base out there, who have phones which will run Java apps.

Startups must consider carefully what I call the three R’s of mobile development: Reach, Resources, Return.

1. What reach does the platform youve chosen to develop on, give you?
2. What of your precious resources will it take to develop and support that platform? How does that Reach/Resources calculation look?
3. What return does your target platform represent? i.e. how will you realise a return, where is the platform most popular, will stakeholders of that platform prevent you from (or take commission from) you realizing a return?

Consequently, bloggers – especially those with the ear of the startup community – should encourage startups to invest their development resources VERY carefully; for example, Google Gears will be supporting many platforms – I guess including iphone – and if they deliver on their promise, provide standardised hooks into the hardware, from the browsers, to access location api, camera, filesystem, etc, from the phone web browser.

The Valley cant afford to be so introspective with mobile, as it has been able to with the traditional Internet

Lastly, as a European, the valley – and many of its bloggers – are notoriously U.S. or atleast Western centric. The iphone IS FANTASTIC! I agree it is! But look outside your own back yard – Japan has been doing amazing stuff on mobile, without Apple, for a long time. India is skipping fixed line internet and doing all sorts of stuff from their non-Apple mobile phones. I’ve been using the mobile web on my Blackberry and before that on my other phones, for years.

The point is that people talk as is the mobile internet didnt exist before the iphone; and maybe for those people as individuals it didnt. But for millions of people it has – and although without question the iphone provides a fantastic user experience (its main reason for its success IMHO), it is expensive, proprietary and has a small install base. That said, I’m waiting for my upgrade to the 3G version

The mobile internet IS the internet of the future

The mobile internet will, in the future, dwarf the fixed line internet and become the norm. It will make the fixed line internet (and I believe, most laptops) seem like the quaint anomalies of history – where the internet began. You’ll come home, plug in your 1 terabyte iphone-equivalent to a large screen and keyboard and simply unplug it and leave the house or office when you go. I believe I’ll be doing this within 5-7 years.

Those startups keen on building a global – or even U.S. – dominating consumer brand for their service, would be wise to look at what is going on in the rest of the world, where in some places the mobile internet is already ahead of both the U.S. and Europe.

How not to manage Fairford Air Tattoo cancellation

Air Tattoo Director Tim Prince should resign his position or be fired. The Fairford Air Tattoo has never been cancelled in its 38 years history, yet on this sunny day Saturday July 12^th, they have cancelled it because of “a sustained period of heavy rainfall that has resulted in waterlogged conditions not only in the public car parks but also on the airfield itself.”

I am not in a position to judge as to whether this was the right decision or not – I have not seen the airfield.

What I am furious about is that no significant effort was made to contact people who have bought tickets and travelled – in some cases a long way at great financial expense – to attend the show.

I checked the website on Saturday morning before leaving London, actually to see if the aircraft participation list had been updated. Not surprisingly, I missed the tiny note on the page stating that the show was cancelled today. This is absurd in the extreme. With something as major as cancelling the event (for half the participants) WHY is it not SPLASHED across the page in red to avoid anyone not seeing it??? Instead the graphics still stated 12^th & 13^th July.

Its incompetent in the extreme.

I booked a ticket online. RIAT and Ticketmaster have my email address. Did I receive an email telling me it was cancelled? No. Only a moron would not consider sending out an email to all those who bought Saturday or Saturday/Sunday tickets – its cost-free, instant and effective.

Instead I wasted my day, wasted £100 on train tickets and cannot even book for Sunday if I want to.

Other sensible measures would have been to WARN people as the airfield was getting water logged, that cancellation might be a possibility and to put signs (easy to print on any laser or inkjet printer) at major travel hubs (London, Edinburgh, Birmingham) stating that the show was cancelled.

I’m furious and disappointed and other than providing a refund (to take 8 weeks!) for my tickets, RIAT has provided no further compensation – I don’t expect them to pay for my train tickets, that would be naive; but having failed completely to make any effort to inform people who may attend (there was not even a sign at Swindon Station, I had to be told by a bus driver whom I asked) the least RIAT could do is offer a token discount for next years event – one which I doubt I shall be supporting after this years debacle.

In summary, Tim Prince and his colleagues should have:

• Informed all Saturday or Sat/Sun ticket holders on Friday that there were potential problems with water logged fields
• Informed all Saturday or Sat/Sun ticket purchases by email that the show is cancelled as soon as they knew
• Put a very obvious banner in red on the RIAT homepage and Air Tattoo homepage
• Put a simple sign up at Swindon train station
• Put a simple sign up at major transport hubs

Vodafone 3G Mobile Broadband: Painful. Poor software, poor support.

I was fedup with chasing Wifi points in Europe; and although I have a Blackberry on O2 with roaming inclusive, I wanted a data card for 3G access bundled.

The only provider with bundled European data rates was Vodafone, business tariff. £70 a month, unlimited UK use with 200mb inclusive European roaming.

Heres my incredibly frustrating experience in bullet point form:

1. Order device/contract
2. Arrives 10 days later
3. Install into Vista
4. Doesnt work; try reinstall, try everything
5. Eventually download latest Mobile Connect software; it then works
6. Go to Germany. Doesnt work or connect. Another 6 HOURS wasted trying to get it to work.
7. Call VF support – this is where the fun begins:
8. Get cut off
9. Get transferred
10. Speak to a girl
11. She says its because the roaming is barred (Ive just opened the account!!!!)
12. She unbars the account
13. I cant then connect to E-plus, but not to Vodafone
14. She cant tell me where to configure the software, because she doesnt have the version I have, on her system. We go around in circles for 45 minutes. She wont put me through to the technical team, so instead I get put on hold every two minutes and we have a circular, protracted conversation
15. Eventually, I give up.
16. E-plus is allowing me to connect, Vodafone will not. How can my OWN network refuse connection but E-plus accept, if its because of a bar.
17. She says its because of the signal. This is rubbish- IM IN THE MIDDLE OF BERLIN! I check my phone, sure enough I have strong VF signal. Not only that, but the mobile connect software shows VF listed, but wont allow connection.

So in summary, I was being told I could not connect to Vodafone because of the bar taking time to filter off (even though I can connect to a roaming partner – whom I will get charged for) yet ALSO that the signal is not strong enough (in the centre of Berlin…) So clearly, on both counts, rubbish.

The only choice I have is to wait and see if it is because of the bar not being listed. I’ll let you know.

Meanwhile, I have had my worst fears confirmed about mobile network operators:

• They are still ill prepared to deal with problems and customer support issues; particularly software problems or internet
• They still dont allow any direct contact with people who can actually have a sensible conversation – helping both parties; i.e. escalating the problem so I can talk technical with a technical person
• I still have to pay for THEIR failures – I will be charged £25 for my HOURS LONG support call to Vodafone and I still dont have a solution to my problem.
• Being a business customer does not improve your chances of getting good service – I still get to talk to people who are under trained, dont have the tools to help diagnose the problem and deal with grumpy customers while the technical people (who are likely paid more) sit behind a human fire wall and diagnose problems without even speaking to the person who is reporting the fault
• Mobile Software with MNO devices is still unreliable, poorly conceived and poorly supported
• The MNOs website are often confusing, out of date and have really useless support areas covering only basic “Im an idiot” FAQs and solutions. I twice, via Google, found woefully outdated software on Vodafones site, claiming to be the latest version.
• Microsoft Vista is still a nightmare and causes more problems than it solves. I’ll be switching to Linux, ASAP.

All in all, I really shit experience with Vodafone, after a 8 year period with O2, I certainly feel no reason to take my main mobile phone account back to the most expensive network after my experience with their data card … They are supposed to have the best coverage, right? Apparently, not in central Berlin.